$16.50 deepstacks PKO FT
Due to massive risk premium vs the same stack size, I decided to flat QQ on BU 4 left, which seems to be correct approach according to preflop academy models 40bb vs 40bb with shortstacks around.
Recreational player on SB squeezes and good mid stakes reg jams for 80bb and I used my entire time bank and decided to call. This felt very close in game, and one of the spots that I think we are not making a lot of EV, so QQ is probably indifferent. I ran couple simulation, giving SB JJ AK to stack off with and occasional bluff squeeze for card removal effects in Monte Carlo in HRC.
Ranges I assigned:
CO RFI range
BU CC range
SB SQZ range
SB stack-off range 3way (SB was recreational and I expected him to stack off wider then he should in ICM)
Scenario 1 (most likely in my mind): CO jams AKo AKs QQ only
BU calling range:
QQ is +$14.8
Scenario 2: (pessimistic approach)CO jams AKo AKs QQ + 25% AA, 50% KK
QQ is -$98.0
Scenario 2: (optimistic approach)CO jams AKo AKs QQ + 50% JJ, 50% TT and 25% AQs
QQ is +$73.1
As we see if really depends on what CO is jamming with. QQ is closer then it seems. All 3 scenarios:
+73.1+14.8-98.0 = -$10
I thought it's very interesting hand and I will make sure that I brainstorm CO jamming range with other players to come up with the conclusion that is accurate for playerpool. I wonder what are your thoughts. Please comment in here or in my discord server. Thanks!
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