risk premium

$16.50 deepstacks PKO FT
replayer.runitup.com/hands/858afeffa0

Due to massive risk premium vs the same stack size, I decided to flat QQ on BU 4 left, which seems to be correct approach according to preflop academy models 40bb vs 40bb with shortstacks around. 

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Recreational player on SB squeezes and good mid stakes reg jams for 80bb and I used my entire time bank and decided to call. This felt very close in game, and one of the spots that I think we are not making a lot of EV, so QQ is probably indifferent. I ran couple simulation, giving SB JJ AK to stack off with and occasional bluff squeeze for card removal effects in Monte Carlo in HRC.  

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Ranges I assigned:
​CO RFI range

BU CC range

SB SQZ range

SB stack-off range 3way (SB was recreational and I expected him to stack off wider then he should in ICM)

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Scenario 1 (most likely in my mind): CO jams AKo AKs QQ only
​BU calling range: 

QQ is +$14.8

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Scenario 2: (pessimistic approach)CO jams AKo AKs QQ + 25% AA, 50% KK

QQ is -$98.0

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​Scenario 2: (optimistic approach)CO jams AKo AKs QQ + 50% JJ, 50% TT and 25% AQs

QQ is +$73.1

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Conclusion: 

As we see if really depends on what CO is jamming with. QQ is closer then it seems. All 3 scenarios:
+73.1+14.8-98.0 = -$10

I thought it's very interesting hand and I will make sure that I brainstorm CO jamming range with other players to come up with the conclusion that is accurate for playerpool. I wonder what are your thoughts. Please comment in here or in my discord server. Thanks!

​Peace